Election Writ 4/7: When polls disagree

Election Writ 4/7: When polls disagree

When the polls start to diverge in an election, the campaign becomes a bit of a Choose Your Own Adventure. On the one hand, the race might be tight — really tight. Or it could be a Liberal stomping. Or it could be somewhere in between.Let’s try to make some sense of it.The Numbers: Week 2 goes to the Liberals, too - On Saturday, Philippe and I recorded our weekly bonus episode of The Numbers that is reserved for members of our Patreon. You can j…

Ask an Expert: Can You Trust the 2025 Election Polls?

Opinion polls are perhaps one of the noisiest parts of a federal election campaign. It seems like every other day, there’s a new poll accompanied by a splashy headline making a bold prediction about the fate of the nation. But can you trust it? And is polling able to capture the vibe shift towards minor parties and independents? We asked Tasmanian psephologist (someone who studies elections and voting) Dr Kevin Bonham for some advice on interpre…