How a $1.4tn Trump trade war could unfold

Trump's tariff war could cost world $1.4 trillion, raise prices in US by 5%, finds analysis

US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs could cost the world $1.4 trillion in lost economic opportunities and raise prices in the United States by 5.5%, according to an analysis by Aston Business School

Global cost of a 2025 tariff war could reach $1.4 trillion

An analysis by Aston University researchers is the first to estimate the economic fallout from six US trade tariff scenarios and their impact on trade flows, prices, production and welfare.

How a $1.4tn Trump trade war could unfold

Econometric study models global fallout from tariff retaliation, including dramatic rise in US prices

As the Tariff clock counts down - Global cost of 2025 tariff war could reach $1.4 trillion

A new report from Aston Business School evaluates the economic fallout of US tariffs across six potential future scenarios, from unilateral US actions to a full-scale global trade war, and outlines strategic responses for the UK. Significant disruptions in trade, widespread price hikes and welfare losses could have a global economic toll of $1.4 trillion, under the worst-case scenario.

Trump's trade war would cost the world $1.4 trillion

The rise in corporate insolvency could have a significant impact on employment